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P. Graham: Microsoft is Dead

9 Message(s) by 5 Author(s) originally posted in java advocacy


From: asjbiotek Date:   Saturday, April 07, 2007
I do not like the guy, but he says what I have been saying to some of my
friends:

http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

--------------------------------------------------------------

A few days ago I suddenly realized Microsoft was dead . I was talking
to a young startup founder about how Google was different from Yahoo .
I said that Yahoo had been warped from the start by their fear of
Microsoft. That was why they'd positioned themselves as a "media
company" instead of a technology company. Then I looked at his face
and realized he did not understand. It was as if I'd told him how much
girls liked Barry Manilow in the mid 80s. Barry who?

Microsoft? He did not say anything, but I could tell he did not quite
believe anyone'd be frightened of them.


From: Roy Schestowitz Date:   Saturday, April 07, 2007
__/ [ asjbiotek@xxxxxxxxxxx ] on Saturday 07 April 2007 22:58 \__

I do not like the guy, but he says what I have been saying to some of my
friends:
http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html
--------------------------------------------------------------
A few days ago I suddenly realized Microsoft was dead. I was talking
to a young startup founder about how Google was different from Yahoo.
I said that Yahoo had been warped from the start by their fear of
Microsoft. That was why they'd positioned themselves as a "media
company" instead of a technology company. Then I looked at his face
and realized he did not understand. It was as if I'd told him how much
girls liked Barry Manilow in the mid 80s. Barry who?
Microsoft? He did not say anything, but I could tell he did not quite
believe anyone'd be frightened of them.



He isn't the first to make an assertion. The tipping point goes quite some
time back (in the context of services in particular).

November 25 [2006] - Microsoft Dies

,----[ Quote ]
| This is the day. The demise of Microsoft. The day of reckoning has
| come at last. Friday 23rd November 2006. Google had seen it's profits
| soar massively. Microsoft on the other hand have had an awful year.
| Low profits, internal scandals, a lowered reputation and a lowered
| customer satisfaction rate have left the company in tatters.
`----

http://globa-tech.blogspot.com/2006/11/november-25-microsoft-dies.html

Of course, the software division suffers similar issues. Only 12% of the
population intends to give up on old software (remember, it's all about the
apps) and hop on Vista. Then there's OpenDocument, which could rip Office
(or its cost at the least) apart.

--
~~ With kind regards

Roy S. Schestowitz | LINUX - (L)ove (I)s (N)ever (U)tterly eXPensive
http://Schestowitz.com | RHAT GNU /Linux ¦ PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
run-level 5 Mar 11 15:57 last=S
http://iuron.com - help build a non-profit search engine


From: flyer Date:   Saturday, April 07, 2007
In article <1175983111.344239.205230@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
asjbiotek@xxxxxxxxxxx says...
I do not like the guy, but he says what I have been saying to some of my
friends:
http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html
--------------------------------------------------------------
A few days ago I suddenly realized Microsoft was dead. I was talking
to a young startup founder about how Google was different from Yahoo.
I said that Yahoo had been warped from the start by their fear of
Microsoft. That was why they'd positioned themselves as a "media
company" instead of a technology company. Then I looked at his face
and realized he did not understand. It was as if I'd told him how much
girls liked Barry Manilow in the mid 80s. Barry who?
Microsoft? He did not say anything, but I could tell he did not quite
believe anyone'd be frightened of them.



THAT gave me chills. Incredible observation.

What's Microsoft? Oh it's that early attemp, rather silly one really, to
scrape mold off things with a dull rock.

NOW we have got user inspectable, upgradeable laser removal systems you
know.

So much for ancient dull rocks.


From: asjbiotek Date:   Saturday, April 07, 2007
wrote in message:

He isn't the first to make an assertion. The tipping point goes quite some
time back (in the context of services in particular).
November 25 [2006] - Microsoft Dies
,----[ Quote ]
| This is the day. The demise of Microsoft. The day of reckoning has
| come at last. Friday 23rd November 2006. Google had seen it's profits
| soar massively. Microsoft on the other hand have had an awful year.
| Low profits, internal scandals, a lowered reputation and a lowered
| customer satisfaction rate have left the company in tatters.
`----



Interesting...although I'd hesitate to characterize Microsoft in
any way as a company in "tatters"....it simply is starting to lose its
overly-dominant hold on the IT industry.


From: Paul Hovnanian P.E. Date:   Saturday, April 07, 2007
More like Microsoft is Undead. It'll continue to roam the land for
years, consuming the flesh of the living until someone chops its head
off.

--
Paul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@xxxxxxxxxxx
------------------------------------------------------------------
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged
demo.


From: flyer Date:   Saturday, April 07, 2007
In article <1175994859.595376.166200@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
asjbiotek@xxxxxxxxxxx says...
wrote in message:
> He isn't the first to make an assertion. The tipping point goes quite some
> time back (in the context of services in particular).
>
> November 25 [2006] - Microsoft Dies
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | This is the day. The demise of Microsoft. The day of reckoning has
> | come at last. Friday 23rd November 2006. Google had seen it's profits
> | soar massively. Microsoft on the other hand have had an awful year.
> | Low profits, internal scandals, a lowered reputation and a lowered
> | customer satisfaction rate have left the company in tatters.
> `----
>
>
Interesting...although I'd hesitate to characterize Microsoft in
any way as a company in "tatters"....it simply is starting to lose its
overly-dominant hold on the IT industry.



A sellout of Microsoft stock, more possible than is now obvious,'d be
dramatic. Confidence in Microsoft could shatter overnight.

The very new factor is matured Linux. Hard migration road for sure, but
once people decide, they can get incredibly industrious. I can imagine
the developers and adopters going full bore on this.

I suppose it could be a gradient ride, but the dissolving fear of MS, as
you point out, combined with loss of confidence, could bring a huge and
fast surprise.

The confidence factor is many times more important than anyone realizes.
Without it, stock value, or any value really, doesn't even exist.

One, or some set of investors could begin a sellout that could peak
within hours if not days. Much stranger things have happend.

It's almost spooky, and is starting to feel like the calm before the
storm.


From: asjbiotek Date:   Sunday, April 08, 2007
wrote in message:
In article <1175994859.595376.166...@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
asjbio...@xxxxxxxxxxx says...
wrote in message:
> > He isn't the first to make an assertion. The tipping point goes quite some
> > time back (in the context of services in particular).
> > November 25 [2006] - Microsoft Dies
> > ,----[ Quote ]
> > | This is the day. The demise of Microsoft. The day of reckoning has
> > | come at last. Friday 23rd November 2006. Google had seen it's profits
> > | soar massively. Microsoft on the other hand have had an awful year.
> > | Low profits, internal scandals, a lowered reputation and a lowered
> > | customer satisfaction rate have left the company in tatters.
> > `----
> Interesting...although I'd hesitate to characterize Microsoft in
> any way as a company in "tatters"....it simply is starting to lose its
> overly-dominant hold on the IT industry.
A sellout of Microsoft stock, more possible than is now obvious,'d be
dramatic. Confidence in Microsoft could shatter overnight.
The very new factor is matured Linux. Hard migration road for sure, but
once people decide, they can get incredibly industrious. I can imagine
the developers and adopters going full bore on this.
I suppose it could be a gradient ride, but the dissolving fear of MS, as
you point out, combined with loss of confidence, could bring a huge and
fast surprise.
The confidence factor is many times more important than anyone realizes.
Without it, stock value, or any value really, doesn't even exist.
One, or some set of investors could begin a sellout that could peak
within hours if not days. Much stranger things have happend.
It's almost spooky, and is starting to feel like the calm before the
storm.


Here's one Microsoft response...he obviously misses the point:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/?q=node/13582


From: Roy Schestowitz Date:   Monday, April 09, 2007
__/ [ asjbiotek@xxxxxxxxxxx ] on Sunday 08 April 2007 14:53 \__

wrote in message:
In article <1175994859.595376.166...@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
asjbio...@xxxxxxxxxxx says...



wrote in message:

> > He isn't the first to make an assertion. The tipping point goes quite
> > some time back (in the context of services in particular).

> > November 25 [2006] - Microsoft Dies

> > ,----[ Quote ]
> > | This is the day. The demise of Microsoft. The day of reckoning has
> > | come at last. Friday 23rd November 2006. Google had seen it's
> > | profits soar massively. Microsoft on the other hand have had an
> > | awful year. Low profits, internal scandals, a lowered reputation and
> > | a lowered customer satisfaction rate have left the company in
> > | tatters.
> > `----

> Interesting...although I'd hesitate to characterize Microsoft in
> any way as a company in "tatters"....it simply is starting to lose its
> overly-dominant hold on the IT industry.

A sellout of Microsoft stock, more possible than is now obvious,'d be
dramatic. Confidence in Microsoft could shatter overnight.

The very new factor is matured Linux. Hard migration road for sure, but
once people decide, they can get incredibly industrious. I can imagine
the developers and adopters going full bore on this.

I suppose it could be a gradient ride, but the dissolving fear of MS, as
you point out, combined with loss of confidence, could bring a huge and
fast surprise.

The confidence factor is many times more important than anyone realizes.
Without it, stock value, or any value really, doesn't even exist.

One, or some set of investors could begin a sellout that could peak
within hours if not days. Much stranger things have happend.

It's almost spooky, and is starting to feel like the calm before the
storm.
Here's one Microsoft response...he obviously misses the point:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/?q=node/13582



June 2006:

The Microsoft malaise

,----[ Quote ]
| "Commentary: Eight signs that the software giant is dead in the water"
`----

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B629B28CD-9E0E-48CA-8E8B-243AA6E2CB92%7D&dist=lycos&siteid=lycos

There's a proverb that goes: when two people say you're drunk, go to bed. In
this case, at least 3 parties, on separate occasions and independently, said
the same thing. Rumours about the death of Microsoft are /not/ greatly
exaggerated (the famous quote again).

--
~~ With kind regards

Roy S. Schestowitz | McDonald's does to diet what Microsoft does to PC's
http://Schestowitz.com | GNU isn't UNIX | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
roy pts/3 Mon Apr 9 03:34 - 03:36 (00:01)
http://iuron.com - proposing a non-profit search engine


From: Ramon F Herrera Date:   Monday, April 09, 2007
wrote in message:
More like Microsoft is Undead. It'll continue to roam the land for
years, consuming the flesh of the living until someone chops its head
off.
--
Paul Hovnanian mailto:P...@xxxxxxxxxxx
------------------------------------------------------------------
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged
demo.



A dead snake can still kill you.

-Ramon



Next Message: Abandon JAVA.util.Hashtable and JAVA.util.Vector


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